Diagnosis and Prediction
While I write cynically about the administrative and legal areas of Iranian society and while all of the people that comment on the governmental development (Specially about Ahmadinezhad) are specially very negative, I must say that in comparison to when I left, the society has opened up quit a lot.
For exapmle in case of women, 10-15 years ago, upper class and land holding women did not need to work, and just like elsewhere in the world the unskilled labour and farmers depended on women either to increase the income of their household in case of former or to utilize the "Womenpower" in harvests in case of the latter. In the case of the middle class women, jobs used to be as nurses, teachers, secretaries, and such, but since the women have captured a clear majority in Universities (55% three years ago and around 60% last year) the women are becoming more of a factor in economic life of the country.
Prediction:
Essentially, not only necessity of incorporating women in the workforce will increase their economic power which in turn results in an increase in their political power (this sort of change is "easier" than changing social norms and deep rooted tradition) but the dependence of the traditional and religious Iranian middle class families on extra income would better their social standing (which is harder to change since its deeply rooted in the societies' norms and standards) This first type of change is a legal one and unless it takes place with shifts in social and non-governmental views of the roles of women, it would be short lived; the best example is that of the superficial political changes in women's' standing during the period of last king which was not entailed any other shifts by fundamental and deeper shifts in the society because it did not correlate with any great change in the women's' role in the economy. Essentially, the enhancement of the women's role in economy and politics changes will be sustainable in the long run because it will be across economic sectors and supported by various other groups and men in various classes and occupations.
Also the Iran government is initiating the "Change like the Chinese Model" the gradual transition from the a brutal totalitarian system to a less intrusive system of Authoritarian politics.
In other words, in early period after the consolidation of the power by the Islamic Republican Party (one year after the revolution) and its dissolution, the aim of the state was to offer and enforce an a complete model of how to live, and it controlled not only the economy and politics and courts but also imposed the Islamic model on educational institutions, social relations, even holidays. But now the powerful people in the system (even with this President) are gradually moving away from regulating people's daily life, of course, the non-economic aspects of it, such as the veil (the Basij and the schools are beginning to discourage wearing of the overall veil in parts due to fears that it could be used in similar ways and for the similar purpose as in Algeria; movement of weapons and explosives) the government is leaving the economic sectors other the lucrative Oil industry free to rampage by the typical upper middle-class Capitalists (who are connected to government in any case) who have earned their capital by importing goods from southern Persian Gulf States (partly the reason for the boom in those countries) who get richer by creating fake shortages.
Anyhow the concentration of the political and economic power by the state is destined to clash with the increase in power of the women. Of course its not only the women but also labourers (since the Economic plans of the government is discouraging the opening of new production facilities and is gradually killing the existing production lines in favor of importation of same goods from Asia and Europe) In Short the motto of the new system will be "stay out of politics and you may have a good life"
For exapmle in case of women, 10-15 years ago, upper class and land holding women did not need to work, and just like elsewhere in the world the unskilled labour and farmers depended on women either to increase the income of their household in case of former or to utilize the "Womenpower" in harvests in case of the latter. In the case of the middle class women, jobs used to be as nurses, teachers, secretaries, and such, but since the women have captured a clear majority in Universities (55% three years ago and around 60% last year) the women are becoming more of a factor in economic life of the country.
Prediction:
Essentially, not only necessity of incorporating women in the workforce will increase their economic power which in turn results in an increase in their political power (this sort of change is "easier" than changing social norms and deep rooted tradition) but the dependence of the traditional and religious Iranian middle class families on extra income would better their social standing (which is harder to change since its deeply rooted in the societies' norms and standards) This first type of change is a legal one and unless it takes place with shifts in social and non-governmental views of the roles of women, it would be short lived; the best example is that of the superficial political changes in women's' standing during the period of last king which was not entailed any other shifts by fundamental and deeper shifts in the society because it did not correlate with any great change in the women's' role in the economy. Essentially, the enhancement of the women's role in economy and politics changes will be sustainable in the long run because it will be across economic sectors and supported by various other groups and men in various classes and occupations.
Also the Iran government is initiating the "Change like the Chinese Model" the gradual transition from the a brutal totalitarian system to a less intrusive system of Authoritarian politics.
In other words, in early period after the consolidation of the power by the Islamic Republican Party (one year after the revolution) and its dissolution, the aim of the state was to offer and enforce an a complete model of how to live, and it controlled not only the economy and politics and courts but also imposed the Islamic model on educational institutions, social relations, even holidays. But now the powerful people in the system (even with this President) are gradually moving away from regulating people's daily life, of course, the non-economic aspects of it, such as the veil (the Basij and the schools are beginning to discourage wearing of the overall veil in parts due to fears that it could be used in similar ways and for the similar purpose as in Algeria; movement of weapons and explosives) the government is leaving the economic sectors other the lucrative Oil industry free to rampage by the typical upper middle-class Capitalists (who are connected to government in any case) who have earned their capital by importing goods from southern Persian Gulf States (partly the reason for the boom in those countries) who get richer by creating fake shortages.
Anyhow the concentration of the political and economic power by the state is destined to clash with the increase in power of the women. Of course its not only the women but also labourers (since the Economic plans of the government is discouraging the opening of new production facilities and is gradually killing the existing production lines in favor of importation of same goods from Asia and Europe) In Short the motto of the new system will be "stay out of politics and you may have a good life"
posted by The Hopeful Cynic at 3:39 AM
3 Comments:
agreed...
i wanted to ask, how lond can iran rely on oil as a significant export and source of revenue? whats next?
wow it is really encouraging to hear that the amount of women enrolled in universities is increasing, and that they are becoming more of a significant factor of change (hopefully) in economics and politics...
As for How long bahodor, I think longer than the green people think and say, even if the non-fossil fuel sources of energy are tapped (Nuclear, Ethonal, off-shore wind mills, sun, etc) 20 years for research, and then brought into Europe and North America (another 20 years), other expanding economies like the whole of Asia, Africa and rest of the America would need a cheaper sorce of energy (if the demand in Europe and America dropps so does the price, and there would be less intervention from EU and US in other countries because the dependendance is less and interests would shift)
And Abby, there is a big factor that the Iranian Women's movement is lacking now and that is a org that can organize and mobolize, I think such Orgs would come into existance when something triggers a crisis, until now there hasn't been a crisis, I hope there is one soon (It might sound a bit careless to hope for a social crisis but I think thas how the advances are made in human history no right is given, it is taken.
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